Key Learnings from Episode 17: Why Hourly Matching Is the Future of Renewable Energy with JP Cerda, Founder and CEO of Renewabl

In this episode of Beyond the Raise, JP Cerda explores how renewable energy procurement is moving from annual accounting towards more precise hourly matching. He explains why producing more renewable power is no longer enough, how corporate demand can influence regulation and where technology, batteries and microgrids fit into the future energy system. The conversation also covers the challenge of building ahead of regulation and Renewabl’s ambition to simplify an increasingly complex market.

Renewable Energy Has Moved Beyond a Nice-to-Have

JP began his career in physical commodities, working across trading and operations for companies including BP, Shell and ED& Man.

Renewable energy had always interested him, but moving into the sector approximately 15 years ago required a significant change of direction. At the time, renewable power represented a much smaller proportion of the UK energy mix and switching from conventional energy often came with a considerable premium.

The emergence of corporate Power Purchase Agreements changed the opportunity. Large businesses such as Google and Amazon began entering long-term contracts that supported the development and financing of new renewable-energy projects.

JP subsequently focused on making PPAs and renewable-energy certificates easier to access and transact through digital platforms. Renewabl represents the next stage of that journey, addressing the additional data and procurement complexity created by hourly matching.

Key Takeaways

• Renewable energy has moved from a voluntary commitment towards a central part of the energy system.

• Corporate PPAs helped connect business demand with the development of new generating assets.

• The growing share of renewable power creates new operational and balancing requirements.

• Digital platforms can make complex energy transactions more accessible.

Annual Matching No Longer Tells the Whole Story

A company can currently calculate its total electricity consumption over a year and purchase an equivalent amount of renewable energy or certificates.

The problem is that annual totals do not show whether renewable power was available when the company actually consumed electricity. A business could use power continuously while purchasing certificates linked mainly to solar energy generated during daylight hours.

The annual figures may balance, but the company will still rely on other energy sources at times when the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing.

Hourly matching compares consumption and renewable generation across each hour. It provides a more accurate picture of how much of an organisation’s demand is being met by carbon-free electricity in real time.

This is particularly important for energy-intensive operations such as data centres, where demand continues throughout the day and night.

Key Takeaways

• Annual accounting can conceal gaps between renewable generation and electricity consumption.

• Hourly matching provides a more accurate view of when clean energy is available.

• Different organisations have very different consumption profiles.

• Continuous operations cannot rely on daytime generation alone.

Better Demand Signals Can Improve What Gets Built

Renewable-energy development has often been influenced by which technologies are most economical to build.

In some markets, this has contributed to large amounts of solar generation being concentrated in the same locations and producing electricity at the same time. When supply exceeds demand, prices can become negative and generators may be paid to reduce production.

JP argues that the industry needs a clearer understanding of where electricity is required, when it is consumed and which generation technologies best fit that demand.

Hourly data can give developers more useful market signals. An area with extensive solar generation may benefit more from wind power or storage than from another solar farm. A region serving data centres may require a mix capable of supporting demand across 24 hours.

The objective is not simply to build more renewable capacity, but to develop a balanced energy system.

Key Takeaways

• More generating capacity does not automatically create a better-balanced grid.

• Developers need to understand the timing and location of energy demand.

• Building the same technology repeatedly can contribute to oversupply.

• Hourly data can help direct investment towards the assets the system needs.

Renewable-Energy Claims Are Becoming More Precise

Existing sustainability frameworks allowed companies to report that they were using 100% renewable electricity when their annual purchasing matched their annual consumption.

That approach reflected the accepted standard at the time. JP does not suggest that companies were necessarily attempting to mislead customers by following it.

However, organisations such as the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, RE100 and the Science Based Targets initiative are moving towards more granular expectations. Greater attention is being placed on when and where power is generated, whether it comes from the same grid and how closely it corresponds with consumption.

This creates a communication challenge. A company previously described as 100% renewable on an annual basis might discover that only 65% of its consumption is matched hourly.

The organisation then needs to explain the distinction clearly while developing a realistic plan for improving its position.

Key Takeaways

• Earlier renewable-energy claims reflected the standards available at the time.

• Newer approaches place greater emphasis on time, location and traceability.

• Annual and hourly matching scores can produce very different results.

• Businesses need to communicate those differences accurately.

The Transition to Hourly Matching Must Be Gradual

Achieving complete hourly matching remains difficult and potentially expensive.

Companies need access to suitable renewable assets and certificates across every hour in which they consume electricity. Scarcity at particular times can make the final stages of reaching a 100% score especially challenging.

JP expects the transition to take place through a phased approach rather than an immediate change. Existing PPAs may also need to be protected through grandfathering provisions because they were signed under earlier expectations.

The supporting infrastructure must evolve as well. UK certificates are currently issued according to units of generation rather than individual hours. Issuing bodies and registries will therefore need to handle more granular information.

Businesses should not assume that the complexity makes preparation unnecessary. Understanding consumption data and existing contracts now can make future compliance considerably easier.

Key Takeaways

• Full hourly matching is not yet practical for every organisation.

• A phased transition allows businesses and markets time to adapt.

• Existing PPAs need to be treated fairly under any new standards.

• Certificate registries and reporting systems must become more granular.

Large Corporates Can Accelerate Market Change

Regulation does not always lead innovation in the energy market.

JP has often seen major energy consumers develop their own internal standards first. Other businesses then follow, industry bodies adopt similar expectations and regulation begins to catch up.

Google has played an important role in advancing hourly matching because its data centres consume significant amounts of electricity. Its procurement requirements affect the facilities, developers and suppliers within its wider network.

However, hourly matching is not the only way to assess impact. Some organisations favour an approach based on “emissionality”, investing in renewable generation where it can displace the most carbon-intensive power.

A company consuming energy in the UK might therefore prioritise local hourly matching, while another may argue that supporting generation in a more carbon-intensive market achieves a greater reduction in emissions.

JP believes both perspectives have value. The future framework may need to balance traceability, local matching and wider emissions impact.

Key Takeaways

• Large energy buyers can establish practices that later become industry standards.

• Corporate procurement decisions can influence developers and energy suppliers.

• Hourly matching and emissions impact address different aspects of the transition.

• Effective regulation may need to balance several legitimate objectives.

Traceability Is Replacing Additionality as a Priority

Corporate renewable-energy procurement was previously centred heavily on additionality.

Businesses wanted to show that their commitment had enabled a new wind or solar project to be financed and built. Long-term PPAs could provide the revenue certainty required to bring those developments forward.

As renewable capacity has increased and governments have introduced their own support mechanisms, the focus has begun to shift.

Companies now place greater emphasis on the origin of their electricity and certificates. They want to understand which asset produced the power, where it was generated and whether it corresponds with their consumption.

Certificates provide a verifiable record of renewable generation and can help reduce the risk of greenwashing, double counting and competing ownership claims.

JP expects traceability, compliance and the use of operational assets to become increasingly important within the UK market.

Key Takeaways

• Additionality helped support the earlier expansion of renewable-energy capacity.

• Corporate priorities are shifting towards provenance and compliance.

• Certificates can connect renewable generation with a specific owner.

• Greater traceability can strengthen the credibility of environmental claims.

Developers Will Need More Flexible Projects

Hourly matching changes the value of electricity generated by different technologies and at different times.

Solar power produced during a period of abundant daytime generation may be less valuable than renewable power available during a scarce evening hour. A single uniform certificate price does not capture that difference.

Renewabl is exploring how an hourly index could reflect scarcity, technology, location and timing more accurately.

These changing values could encourage developers to create hybrid projects combining wind, solar and battery storage. Different technologies can complement each other, while batteries can charge when power is abundant and discharge when it is needed more urgently.

Developers will still face considerable challenges. Renewable projects require financing, grid access and long development periods. Demand signals may also change after a project is already underway.

However, those able to combine technologies and respond to real consumption profiles may be better placed for the next stage of the market.

Key Takeaways

• Renewable electricity does not have the same value at every hour.

• Scarcity could create different prices for different generation periods.

• Hybrid projects can provide a more balanced production profile.

• Developers will need to respond more closely to the location and timing of demand.

Battery Storage Creates New Commercial Opportunities

Battery storage will become increasingly important as renewable generation grows.

Batteries can absorb electricity during periods of high production and release it when supply is limited. Their commercial model already depends partly on the price difference between charging and discharging.

Hourly matching adds another dimension to that opportunity. Storage operators may be able to charge when renewable power and certificates are abundant, then discharge during hours when matched supply is scarce and more valuable.

Integrating batteries into wind and solar projects can also help developers offer customers a more consistent energy profile.

Storage is not a complete solution to every grid constraint, but it can reduce the mismatch between intermittent generation and continuous consumption.

Key Takeaways

• Batteries can move renewable power from abundant periods to scarcer hours.

• Hourly pricing may increase the value of storage-based arbitrage.

• Storage can make wind and solar projects more responsive to customer demand.

• A balanced energy system will require generation and flexibility technologies.

Big Tech Has Significant Influence Over Energy Markets

Google, Microsoft and Amazon are among the world’s largest corporate energy consumers.

Their scale gives them considerable purchasing power. Their requirements can influence prices, procurement standards and the types of renewable projects brought forward.

JP gives the example of Microsoft seeking a PPA in land-constrained Singapore. The company reportedly combined rooftop solar installations across the city to create the necessary agreement.

However, large technology companies may be reluctant to commit permanently to a single procurement philosophy. Rapidly growing data-centre demand means they need to consider hourly matching, emissions impact, nuclear power and other potential solutions.

Their influence creates both opportunity and risk. When major businesses support renewable power, they can accelerate development across the wider market. A significant change in their priorities could also affect investment and confidence.

Key Takeaways

• Major technology businesses can influence entire energy markets through procurement.

• Their growing data-centre operations require enormous quantities of power.

• Large buyers may need several technologies and procurement approaches.

• Corporate leadership can accelerate renewable-energy adoption before regulation changes.

Renewabl Is Simplifying a Data-Heavy Market

Renewabl initially made assumptions about how technologically advanced corporate energy buyers would be.

JP found that many organisations still manage procurement and reporting through Excel. That was workable when the market was less complex, but hourly matching requires businesses to analyse consumption and generation across 8,760 hours each year.

The information may also cover multiple sites, countries, contracts and renewable assets. Energy and sustainability teams need to share that data while reporting against different initiatives and standards.

Renewabl is building a platform that brings energy management, monitoring, compliance and procurement together. The aim is to handle complexity in the background while presenting users with a clear and accessible interface.

AI can further reduce the manual workload by supporting data analysis, reporting and the identification of procurement options that improve an organisation’s hourly matching score.

Key Takeaways

• Hourly matching creates more data than manual spreadsheets can manage effectively.

• Corporate energy and sustainability teams need connected information.

• Good technology should simplify complexity for the user.

• AI can automate repetitive analysis, monitoring and reporting tasks.

Building Ahead of Regulation Requires Conviction

Renewabl was created around the belief that hourly matching would become the next stage of renewable-energy procurement.

The exact timing was uncertain. JP needed to explain to investors why the market was likely to develop while acknowledging that meaningful regulatory change could still take several years.

Building early carries risk, but it also gives a company time to develop its technology, market knowledge and reputation before demand accelerates.

Over the last year, the conversation has shifted. Businesses increasingly recognise that procurement and reporting requirements are becoming more complex. Renewabl no longer needs to spend as much time persuading customers that a problem exists; the focus is moving towards helping them solve it.

JP describes one of his main lessons as the importance of making new mistakes. Founders cannot avoid every error, particularly in a developing market, but they should apply earlier experience rather than repeatedly encountering the same problems.

Key Takeaways

• Category creators often need to build before demand is fully established.

• Regulatory uncertainty can make the investment case harder to communicate.

• Early entry creates time to build knowledge and credibility.

• Experienced founders still make mistakes, but those mistakes should produce new learning.

Microgrids Could Change How Communities Use Energy

One future trend JP believes deserves more attention is the development of microgrids and community energy.

As electric vehicles, home batteries and rooftop solar become more common, individual properties will increasingly possess their own generation and storage capacity.

Bidirectional charging could allow an electric vehicle to supply power as well as receive it. A household with solar panels and battery capacity could potentially sell surplus electricity to neighbours and purchase locally generated power when needed.

This peer-to-peer model could reduce reliance on the wider grid, provide resilience during disruption and allow communities to make better use of locally produced energy.

Significant regulatory, technical and commercial questions remain, but JP sees microgrids as a logical extension of a more distributed and data-driven energy system.

Key Takeaways

• Homes are increasingly becoming generators and storage assets.

• Bidirectional charging could allow electric vehicles to support local energy supply.

• Peer-to-peer trading can help communities use locally produced power.

• Microgrids may improve resilience while reducing pressure on national infrastructure.

Looking Ahead

JP expects 2030 to become an important milestone for changes to energy reporting and procurement.

Success for Renewabl would mean making corporate energy management, compliance and procurement considerably more automated, digital and straightforward.

Connected systems would draw information from multiple sources, monitor performance and help businesses make better purchasing decisions. Greater data sharing between platforms could also make renewable-energy procurement more reliable and transparent.

The largest obstacles are likely to be legacy systems and slow adoption. Organisations often delay preparing for regulatory change until a deadline is close, potentially creating a rush for solutions towards the end of the decade.

Final Thought

The next stage of renewable energy is not simply about producing more electricity from wind and solar. It is about generating the right type of power, in the right location and at the time it is needed.

JP’s experience shows how hourly matching can connect corporate procurement with the physical reality of the energy system. It can improve traceability, create clearer signals for developers and give businesses a more honest understanding of their renewable-energy use.

Achieving that transition will require new standards, better data and more flexible infrastructure. The companies that begin preparing before regulation forces them to act will be best placed for what comes next.